Basic Concepts For The Forex Market-2

Carry Trades

Currency values never remain stationary and it is this dynamic that gave birth to one of the most popular trading strategies of all time, the carry trade. Carry traders hope to earn not only the interest rate differential between the two currencies, but also look for their positions to appreciate in value. There have been plenty of opportunities for big profits in the past. Let's take a look at some historical examples.

Between 2003 and the end of 2004, the AUD/USD currency pair offered a positive yield spread of 2.5%. Although this may seem very small, the return would become 25% with the use of 10:1 leverage. During that same time, the Australian dollar also rallied from 56 cents to close at 80 cents against the U.S. dollar, which represented a 42% appreciation in the currency pair. This means that if you were in this trade - and many hedge funds at the time were - you would have not only earned the positive yield, but you would have also seen tremendous capital gains in your underlying investment.

The carry trade opportunity was also seen in USD/JPY in 2005. Between January and December of that year, the currency rallied from 102 to a high of 121.40 before ending at 117.80. This is equal to an appreciation from low to high of 19%, which was far more attractive than the 2.9% return in the S&P 500 during that same year. In addition, at the time, the interest rate spread between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen averaged around 3.25%. Unleveraged, this means that a trader could have earned as much as 22.25% over the course of the year. Introduce 10:1 leverage, and that could be as much as 220% gain.
Carry Trade Success

The key to creating a successful carry trade strategy is not simply to pair up the currency with the highest interest rate against a currency with the lowest rate. Rather, far more important than the absolute spread itself is the direction of the spread. In order for carry trades to work best, you need to be long a currency with an interest rate that is in the processes of expanding against a currency with a stationary or contracting interest rate. This dynamic can be true if the central bank of the country that you are long is looking to raise interest rates or if the central bank of the country that you are short is looking to lower interest rates.
In the previous USD/JPY example, between 2005 and 2006, the U.S. Federal Reserve was aggressively raising interest rates from 2.25% in January to 4.25%, an increase of 200 basis points. During that same time, the Bank of Japan sat on its hands and left interest rates at zero. Therefore, the spread between U.S. and Japanese interest rates grew from 2.25% (2.25% - 0%) to 4.25% (4.25% - 0%). This is what we call an expanding interest rate spread.

The bottom line is that you want to pick carry trades that benefit not only from a positive and growing yield, but that also have the potential to appreciate in value. This is important because just as easily as currency appreciation can increase the value of your carry trade earnings, currency depreciation could erase all of your carry trade gains and then some.

Getting to Know Interest Rates

Knowing where interest rates are headed is important in forex trading and requires a good understanding of the underlying economics of the country in question. Generally speaking, countries that are performing very well, with strong growth rates and increasing inflation will probably raise interest rates to tame inflation and control growth. On the flip side, countries that are facing difficult economic conditions ranging from a broad slowdown in demand to a full recession will consider the possibility of reducing interest rates.

Conclusion
Thanks to the widespread availability of electronic trading networks, forex trading is now more accessible than ever. The largest financial market in the world offers a world of opportunity for investors who take the time to get to understand it and learn how to mitigate the risk of trading here.

By Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg Investopedia.com