Saturday, September 4, 2010

Basic Concepts For The Forex Market-1

You don't have to be a daily trader to take advantage of the forex market - every time you travel overseas and exchange your money into a foreign currency, you are participating in the foreign exchange (forex) market. According to the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivative Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, the forex market generated $3.2 trillion dollars worth of transactions each day. This makes the forex market the quiet giant of finance, dwarfing over all other capital markets in its world.

Despite this market's overwhelming size, when it comes to trading currencies, the concepts are simple. Let's take a look at some of the basic concepts that all forex investors need to understand.

Eight Majors

Unlike the stock market, where investors have thousands of stocks to choose from, in the currency market, you only need to follow eight major economies and then determine which will provide the best undervalued or overvalued opportunities. These following eight countries make up the majority of trade in the currency market:
1. United States
2. Eurozone (the ones to watch are Germany, France, Italy and Spain)
3. Japan
4. United Kingdom
5. Switzerland
6. Canada
7. Australia

8. New Zealand

These economies have the largest and most sophisticated financial markets in the world. By strictly focusing on these eight countries, we can take advantage of earning interest income on the most credit worthy and liquid instruments in the financial markets.

Economic data is released from these countries on an almost daily basis, allowing investors to stay on top of the game when it comes to assessing the health of each country and its economy.

Yield and Return

When it comes to trading currencies, the key to remember is that yield drives return.

When you trade in the foreign exchange spot market, you are actually buying and selling two underlying currencies. All currencies are quoted in pairs, because each currency is valued in relation to another. For example, if the EUR/USD pair is quoted as 1.3500 that means it takes $1.35 to purchase one euro.

In every foreign exchange transaction, you are simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. In effect, you are using the proceeds from the currency you sold to purchase the currency you are buying. Furthermore, every currency in the world comes attached with an interest rate set by the central bank of that currency's country. You are obligated to pay the interest on the currency that you have sold, but you also have the privilege of earning interest on the currency that you have bought.

As an example, let's look at the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen pair (NZD/JPY). Let's assume that New Zealand has an interest rate of 8% and that Japan has an interest rate of 0.5% In the currency market, interest rates are calculated in basis points. A basis point is simply 1/100th of 1%. So, New Zealand rates are 800 basis points and Japanese rates are 50 basis points. If you decide to go long NZD/JPY you will earn 8% in annualised interest, but have to pay 0.50% for a net return of 7.5%, or 750 basis points.

Leveraging Returns

The forex market also offers tremendous leverage - often as high as 100:1 - which means that you can control $10,000 worth of assets with as little as $100 of capital. However, leverage can be a double-edged sword; it can create massive profits when you are correct, but may also generate huge losses when you are wrong.

Clearly, leverage should be used judiciously, but even with relatively conservative 10:1 leverage, the 7.5% yield on NZD/JPY pair would translate into a 75% return on an annual basis. So, if you were to hold a 100,000 unit position in NZD/JPY using $5,000 worth of equity, you would earn $9.40 in interest every day. That's $94 dollars in interest after only 10 days, $940 worth of interest after three months, or $3,760 annually. Not too shabby given the fact that the same amount of money would only earn you $250 in a bank savings account (with a rate of 5% interest) after a whole year. The only positive over having the bank account earn you interest is that the return would be risk-free.

The use of leverage basically exacerbates any sort of market movements. As easily as it increases profits, it can just as quickly cause large losses. However, these losses can be capped through the use of stops. Furthermore, almost all forex brokers offer the protection of a margin watcher - a piece of software that watches your position 24 hours a day, five days per week and automatically liquidates it once margin requirements are breached. This process insures that your account will never post a negative balance and your risk will be limited to the amount of money in your account.

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